Energy Forum 2025: Shaping a Secure and Sustainable Energetic Future in Central and South-East Europe

Building on the success of the Energy Forum held in 2023 and 2024, OCECCD and Gnosis Institute organised again its flagship event. This time the forum was realised in cooperation with the MCC Climate Policy Institute in Budapest on 27 May 2025. The ‘Energy Forum 2025: Shaping a Secure and Sustainable Energetic Future in Central and South-East Europe’ brought together representatives of governments, state agencies and energy companies as well as experts and researchers from Central and South-East Europe to share their ideas on such very important themes like geopolitical context of energy policy-making, green transition and sustainability, and the role of different energy resources that will largely influence the future of energy security and development in the region in the future.

On behalf of the organisers, Mr. Erik Molnár Jr., General Director of Gnosis Institute and Dr. Mónika Besenyei, Director of Climate Policy Institute welcomed the guests of the event. They reminded that Central and South-East Europe is facing multi-faceted challenges while it is trying to create provisions of energy security. Thanks to increasing awareness, aspects of sustainability and environment protection are getting more attention as part of green transition. At the same time, governments still must pay attention to several other political, economic and social concerns, including affordability and stability of energy supplies. The organisers expressed their hope that the Energy Forum would contribute a better understanding of the challenges ahead and the articulation of future solutions.

During the first panel entitled ‘Going green while baby drills’, the speakers focused on the changing geopolitical context in which policy- and decision-makers have to manoeuvre and find proper energy policy answers. Among others, the impacts of the war in Ukraine, the increasing conflicts in the Middle and Far East as well as the political turmoil caused by the Trump administration were on the menu of this discussion. The panel started with the keynote speech of András Jenei, Deputy Director of the Centre for Fair Political Analysis who presented a comprehensive analytical framework of the geopolitical context, including the cultural and civilizational challengers of the current world order, the drivers and characteristics of the Trump administration geostrategy and policymaking, bilateral relations with Hungary and the EU’s reaction to the changing transatlantic dynamics. Afterwards, a panel discussion with the moderation of Erik Molnár Jr. provided various considerations from Central and South-East Europe. Péter Holicza, Deputy State Secretary for EU Affairs & International Relations of the Ministry of Energy of Hungary explained how different approaches within the European Union are competing that tries to address parallelly the necessities to increase competitiveness, to ensure affordable and stable energy supply, to meet the requirements related to Green Deal of the European as well as to align its foreign and security policy. Leonita Shabani-Mullarama, Secretary General of the Ministry of Economy of Kosovo drew attention to actions made in the direction of increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix of Kosovo which so far heavily relied on coal and lignite. She also reminded that although the electricity prices are relatively low in Kosovo, someone has to pay for the green energy and for meeting anti-carbon policies of the European Union, Kosovo wishes to be a member of and covering electricity bills are already a problem for several households. Shabani also underlined the importance of regional cooperation in meeting requirements related to green transition. One of the most compelling contributions came from H.E. Christo Polendakov, Bulgaria’s Ambassador to Hungary. Taking a broad and nuanced intellectual approach to the topic, Ambassador Polendakov skilfully interwove political, economic and technological considerations to present a sophisticated, forward-looking vision for energy policy. He began by reframing the familiar rallying cry 'Drill, baby, drill', thereby moving the debate beyond the simplistic juxtaposition of fossil fuels and renewables. To him, the green transition is not a zero-sum contest between entrenched practices and emerging ideals, but rather a deliberate and strategic evolution requiring prudent sequencing, pragmatic flexibility and an unwavering long-term perspective. Rejecting the idea that hydrocarbons and clean energy are incompatible, he presented them as complementary components of a broader, more robust transitional framework. In closing, Ambassador Polendakov emphasised the growing necessity of regional collaboration, insisting that closer cooperation among neighbouring states is indispensable for navigating a fluid geopolitical landscape and ensuring an equitable and inclusive energy transition. His remarks neatly synthesised the overarching themes of the panel, from shifting geopolitical alignments to the urgent social and economic issue of energy affordability, and provided them with a coherent, forward-looking framework. Above all, he reminded the audience that the real task is not to choose between fossil fuels and renewables, but to craft a flexible, intelligent and ethically grounded energy portfolio that meets current needs while honouring our responsibilities to future generations.

The second panel received the title ‘Helping hands of your neighbour’ and accordingly covered topics related to cross-border and regional cooperation in the energy sector which play an increasingly important role in the facilitation of a better and more efficient operation of energy supply chains and trade in the energy sector. Szabolcs I. Ferencz, Chairman of the Board & CEO of FGSZ Ltd. explained in his keynote speech how significantly the dominant gas flow directions changed in the last four years and what role natural gas could possibly play in the future energy mix. He argued that gas consumption in Europe is likely to increase in the future as a balancing energy source complementing the increasing ratio of renewables. In the natural gas supply of Central and East Europe the Southern supply corridor will have an increasing share. There are other diversification opportunities like LNG, but its price level is more volatile. Ságvári Pál, Vice President for Strategic and International Affairs of the Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority started his presentation by highlighting the boom in the use of photovoltaic energy in the last few years in Hungary thanks to the developing interconnectors. Strengthening coupling was the most beneficial for the CEE region in terms of relative socio-economic welfare gain compared to the Western part of the EU. At the same time Ságvári also drew attention to market anomalies and structural challenges that require effective and market-conform responses. Finally, he also provided data on how the EU’s gas import changed and what financial and economic implications the reshuffling of Hungary’s dominant supply points could have. Lidija Božić, Head of Production Department of the Croatian Hydrocarbon Agency provided an insight into that how the hydrocarbon segment of the Croatian energy sector has been developing and how important role ‘drilling’ actually plays today as well. Afterwards, Božić introduced the details of GT CCS project that would initially serve the capture, transportation and storage CO2 emitted by cement factories in Hungary and Croatia near to their borders and on the long run – combined with a geothermal power plant producing heat for local communities – could become regional hub for CO2 usage. The last presentation of the panel was held by Róbert Fehér, Vice President of the Hungarian Renewable Energy Association. He started by presenting data on the wholesale electricity prices in Europe that managed to regain some stability at a somewhat higher level compared to the pre-war period. His presentation continued with the analysis of solar energy production and price level highlighting the controversies in this market segment, especially during the summer period. In the second part of his presentation, Fehér brought examples of that how production and usage of solar energy could be better optimised by either hybridisation or via energy community. During the discussion, with the moderation of Dr. Ottó Toldi, Senior Researcher of the Climate Policy Institute, the speakers tried to describe possible future developments on the way to greening targets by 2030 and 2050.

After the lunch break, the Energy Forum continued with the panel entitled ‘Sustainable and realistic: the future of green transformation’ in which the speakers did not only argued for the use of the different energy resources to reach sustainability goals, but they also got into a discussion about the very essential concept of growth and development. The moderator of this panel was Árpád Párducz, International Analyst of the Institute of Energy Strategy. The keynote speaker of this panel was Dalibor Arbutina, Director of the Nuclear Facilities of Serbia who introduced the background of nuclear energy in Serbia and the role of the company. He highlighted the reasons behind the changing government approach to nuclear energy which is likely to become crucial in reaching its sustainability goals in fighting climate change. Currently there is an ongoing assessment of justification of nuclear energy. While there are several pro arguments, negative public opinion because of former accidents and the loss of human capacities will be important challenges to deal with. The panel continued with the presentation of Pál Kovács, Head of Cabinet and Director of CEO’s Cabinet, MVM Paks Nuclear Power Plant Ltd. who also brought several examples how governments in various parts of the world, including EU member states reconsidering the stances on nuclear energy. He insisted that while there is a need for going green, there is an accelerating growth of electricity consumption due to the increasing number of electric vehicles and data centres. He also drew attention to the differences in energy mixes of developed countries and the emerging and developing economies and to that reaching sustainability is unlikely to happen in a linear way. Concerning the Hungarian electricity market he also referred to the market challenges accompanying the increasing ration of solar energy and why nuclear power plants could have an important role in the future as well. Dr. Alexandra Köves, Ecological Economist andAssociate Professor of the Department of Decision Sciences of the Corvinus University of Budapest made a U-turn in the discussion by presenting degrowth concept and emphasising the need to change our attitude towards growth, otherwise sustainability remains unreachable. Köves highlighted also challenges stemming from the welfare gap on the global scale and that currently modernisation and new technologies, including renewables try to meet demands of the strengthening growth but those capacities are not unlimited. She also reminded the degrowth is not equal with recession or lack of growth but a reconsideration of some basic concepts like development, well-being, value, work, etc. Ljiljana Zornjak, Head of Geothermal Potential Development Department of the Croatian Hydrocarbon Agency provided a presentation about the geothermal potential of Croatia and how the legislative framework and activities expanded during the last decade. The untapped potential in geothermal energy is expected to contribute not only to electricity production but to local heating systems as well as agricultural activities in a sustainable and zero-emission manner.

The last panel ‘Energy strategies and their socio-economic impacts’ focused on various social, economic, environmental and political aspects of energy strategies in Central and South-East Europe. The keynote speech of Rusif Huseynov, Director of the Topchubashov Center in Azerbaijan focused on the role of Azerbaijan and Central Asia in the EU’s green energy transition and its diversification efforts and how increasing connectivity among the Central Asian countries – for example via the Trans-Caspian pipeline – could provide further opportunities. Although he also highlighted possible obstacles and problems, he noted there is an opportunity for the region and Azerbaijan to become an energy hub and via using hydrocarbon funds strengthen its own green transition. Dr. Ottó Toldi launched his presentation by reminding on that how rapidly a war situation can turn green agenda upside down. He expressed concerns how green ideology in the EU and the insistence on greening disregarded costs stemming from loss in competitiveness and the increasing pressure from other international actors like USA and China. Concerning Hungary, he admitted that there is a need to significantly decrease import-dependence by increasing share of renewables and nuclear energy, increasing storage capacities and strengthening connectivity. He also underlined that Hungary prefers long-term contracts in imports like gas that’s why the government is dedicated to strengthening connection to the Trans-Balkan pipeline and less enthusiastic about LNG resources. Milan Antonijević, independent consultant and human rights lawyer from Serbia underlined the importance of societal support for the new energy strategy that is currently under preparation. Reaching a kind of social contract by involving the public could strengthen legitimacy and bases of the strategy. In his view, the strategy will definitely have to address the issue of energy poverty and redefine the role of reopened opportunity for nuclear energy. Transparency and fight against corruption in the energy sector shall be strictly applied principles in order to build further trust towards the measures to be implemented. Finally, Antonijevićnoted that regional cooperation in the energy sector could also contribute to reconciliation process and ease tensions for example between Kosovo and Serbia. Agron Demi, Director of the Atlas Institute from Kosovo delivered the last presentation during the Energy Forum in which he demonstrated several reasons why the energy sector shall be particularly a consideration of the government. Despite the relatively low level of electricity prices in Kosovo, 14 per cent of the families could not properly heat their homes and one-fifth of the households spend 10% or more of their monthly budget to keep the lights on. Health related problems are also paramount: in Europe, the highest number premature death per million habitants due to air pollution is in Kosovo (2500), mainly due to the operation of the carbon and lignite fired power plant and the number of lower respiratory tract infection cases are also very high. In the light of these data, decreasing the role of coal in energy production is essential. Meanwhile, the introduction of CBAM regulations of the EU could have a strong impact on the economy of Kosovo because of increasing prices and costs as well as decreasing competitiveness of the export products from Kosovo. During the panel discussion the moderator of the panel, Anna Orosz, Head of Research of the Gnosis Institute asked the speakers of the role of public opinion in that how much green transition is kept high on the agenda by the governments and whether health problems harming citizens all over the Western Balkan region could surpass other types of divisions.

The Energy Forum in 2025 again managed to present diverse views on energy security, sustainability and green transition which can serve as important fruits for thought in the future. The event ended in the hope that such open-minded discussions that could be heard throughout the day will be beneficial for all relevant actors in the energy sector and that next year we would come together again to analyse new developments and aspects for facilitating a secure and sustainable energetic future in Central and South-East Europe.